Tool 135 · Cat-10 · Personal Finance

Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator

A market crash in year 1 of retirement is catastrophically worse than the same crash in year 15. This tool isolates the return-ordering effect and quantifies the difference using historical crash scenarios. Zero API. Zero PII.

Zero PII · Client-side

Last Reviewed · 2026-05-12

🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.

Educational Use Only This tool provides a self-assessment / educational framework for internal planning purposes only. It is not a regulatory audit, legal advice, or a substitute for a formal compliance review by a qualified advisor. Verify all interpretations against the official source text and applicable RTS/ITS/guidance published by the relevant authority.

Module 1 · Retirement Inputs

Starting Portfolio ($)

Annual Withdrawal ($)

Years in Retirement

Average Annual Return (%)

Crash Scenario

Flexible Spending — cut % in down years (guardrail strategy)

Good Sequence End

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Crash in final years

Average Sequence End

—

Uniform avg returns

Bad Sequence End

—

Crash in first years

Portfolio Balance Over Time — Good / Average / Bad Sequence

Monte Carlo Survival Estimate (500 simulations)

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Run calculation to see survival probability with random return sequences.