Principal risk is the risk that a counterparty fails after delivering one leg of a trade but before receiving the other. For non-CLS trades, the full notional is at risk. CLS eliminates this through payment-versus-payment settlement.
Replacement cost (positive replacement value) is the cost to replace the trade at current market rates if the counterparty defaults before settlement. Estimated as 2-sigma move over the settlement lag at typical FX volatility.
Herstatt risk arises from time-zone differences — the window between one leg settling (e.g. EUR payment in Europe) and the other (USD payment in New York).
- BIS CPMI — PvP guidance for FX settlement (November 2022)
- BIS — Reducing foreign exchange settlement risk: a progress report (2023)
- CLS Group — How CLS works: settlement statistics 2024