T210 · Cat-18 · Cross-Border FX & Payments · Correspondent Risk

Model your payment's failure probability

Four key factors — originator bank tier, correspondent chain length, beneficiary jurisdiction risk, and payment purpose code — combine into a deterministic failure probability score with primary cause distribution and ranked mitigations.

Payment Failure · Probability Correspondent Risk SWIFT gpi Zero PII · Client-side

Last Reviewed · 2026-05-12

Configuration

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Originator Bank Tier

Tier affects SWIFT connectivity quality, compliance screening capacity, and correspondent relationship depth.

Correspondent Chain Length

Each additional hop adds AML/compliance screening, cut-off risk, and repair delay probability.

Beneficiary Jurisdiction Risk

Payment Purpose Code

Purpose codes affect AML screening intensity. OTHR and FCOL carry higher rejection rates.

Payment Amount (USD equivalent)

SWIFT gpi Enabled

About this tool

Failure probability is computed by a weighted additive model across four primary factors, then adjusted by payment size and SWIFT gpi status. Factor weights are derived from BIS CPMI G20 cross-border payments monitoring data and SWIFT analytics (2022–2024).

Base probability formula: P(fail) = w₁·OT + w₂·CL + w₃·JR + w₄·PC, where OT = originator tier score, CL = chain length score, JR = jurisdiction risk score, PC = purpose code score. Adjusted multiplicatively for amount band and gpi status.

Output categories: Low (0–8%), Medium (8–20%), High (>20%). These are model estimates, not empirical measurements for a specific corridor.

BIS CPMI — Cross-border payments monitoring framework (G20 2024)
SWIFT gpi Analytics Report 2023 — payment failure cause distribution
World Bank — Remittance Prices Worldwide: payment success rates by corridor type
FATF — High-risk jurisdictions list, February 2024

Failure Probability Analysis