{
      "tool_id": "art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage",
      "tool_version": "1.0.0",
      "display_name": "Prediction Market Arbitrage",
      "mcp_name": "find_prediction_arbitrage",
      "mandate_type": "event_market_pnl",
      "wave": 36,
      "gpu": false,
      "url": "https://ainumbers.co/chaingraph/art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage.html",
      "description": "Calculates cross-venue prediction market arbitrage: gross spread, fee-adjusted net edge, required capital, and minimum spread to survive fees. Covers Polymarket, Kalshi, SX Bet, and Robinhood. A 6% gross spread nets roughly 1-2% after Kalshi fees. Not financial advice.",
      "input_schema_ref": "chaingraph/art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage.html#manifest",
      "consumes": [
        "art-211-prediction-market-analyzer"
      ],
      "feeds": [],
      "status": "live",
      "conformance_fixtures": true,
      "compute_capability": "server",
      "compute_images": [{"system":"sha256-source","image_id":"sha256:50383b30da28ddff91ea438dbd7fb49e6a9688b10a493a72d42811a35733f2b9","valid_from":"2026-07-10"},{"system":"risc0","image_id":"sha256:a1a0bc89b5b1febaeda3519f6dbade0fa5ac16beeb143c4e1b01689573567bc6","valid_from":"2026-07-04"}],
      "export_capability": [
        "json"
      ],
      "compute_proof_ready": "ready",
      "compute_proof": {
        "type": "ZkVmReceipt",
        "system": "risc0",
        "receiptFormat": "groth16-bn254",
        "imageId": "sha256:a1a0bc89b5b1febaeda3519f6dbade0fa5ac16beeb143c4e1b01689573567bc6",
        "seal": "K3ez39WVpPoNYRu79e7EwfEwLxF1oNcRx9xG9EEZW8MXXJcdctdijyGUnnqfJTFlsc0eAuvBpK3zf3KQh1k/2Cjen+hOC+EPCxWPMCNrAqnRcbH+La5HOBA131E8LwYoLz/o0sR3Z/R9auEzNSPUayCQKum3Ii6ZmIAQRcrg3OwpF+3DOR7davXCIru0rGYBg3ZWB22eC+iwZoFWrEaNDSTQ9WY5vFEpyb7Wk34O/1eT7+hCr/lFWMFeiQ1CJWUFKq9iSMf02sYpS2oneNnxYQS4U7SpZPgz3D1l7r7ajZIfHn3QejS+2iYm9mSKegfbCsky3/Y0bToaYW9dPxQGCA==",
        "journal": {
          "chaingraph_version": "0.4.0",
          "kernel_digest": "sha256:50383b30da28ddff91ea438dbd7fb49e6a9688b10a493a72d42811a35733f2b9",
          "output": {
            "arb_exists": true,
            "capital_deployed": 1000,
            "consensus_gap": 0.05,
            "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Arb opportunities are transient and may disappear before execution. Verify current prices and fees with each venue. For informational purposes only.",
            "fee_a": 0,
            "fee_b": 18.43,
            "gross_profit": 52.63,
            "gross_spread": 0.05,
            "gross_spread_pct": 5,
            "implied_prob_yes_a": 0.45,
            "implied_prob_yes_b": 0.5,
            "k_contracts": 1052.6316,
            "min_spread_to_break_even": 0.0175,
            "net_edge_pct": 3.42,
            "net_profit": 34.2,
            "no_price_b": 0.5,
            "payout": 1,
            "stake_total": 1000,
            "total_fees": 18.43,
            "venue_a": "polymarket",
            "venue_b": "kalshi",
            "yes_price_a": 0.45
          }
        }
      }
    }