{
      "tool_id": "art-211-prediction-market-analyzer",
      "tool_version": "1.0.0",
      "display_name": "Prediction Market Analyzer",
      "mcp_name": "analyze_prediction_market",
      "mandate_type": "event_market_pnl",
      "wave": 36,
      "gpu": false,
      "url": "https://ainumbers.co/chaingraph/art-211-prediction-market-analyzer.html",
      "description": "Computes prediction market PnL, implied probability, break-even, no-vig fair value, expected value, Kelly stake, and odds conversion for binary and scalar contracts. Covers Polymarket, Kalshi, CME Event, and Robinhood. Includes Brier and log-score forecast accuracy metrics. Not financial advice.",
      "input_schema_ref": "chaingraph/art-211-prediction-market-analyzer.html#manifest",
      "consumes": [],
      "feeds": [
        "art-212-prediction-market-arbitrage"
      ],
      "status": "live",
      "conformance_fixtures": true,
      "compute_capability": "server",
      "compute_images": [{"system":"sha256-source","image_id":"sha256:3db60f420ca07f2d35c4aa2707c39a13b6e04399b65f0924f3e1c71d1b619885","valid_from":"2026-07-10"},{"system":"risc0","image_id":"sha256:a1a0bc89b5b1febaeda3519f6dbade0fa5ac16beeb143c4e1b01689573567bc6","valid_from":"2026-07-04"}],
      "export_capability": [
        "json"
      ],
      "compute_proof_ready": "ready",
      "compute_proof": {
        "type": "ZkVmReceipt",
        "system": "risc0",
        "receiptFormat": "groth16-bn254",
        "imageId": "sha256:a1a0bc89b5b1febaeda3519f6dbade0fa5ac16beeb143c4e1b01689573567bc6",
        "seal": "AmHAf9faGaiuwccR/CLWqywKob1J/zWVOEv0eAcx1h8mLwT8PWDeLg8g35t5gOPf20s0czoNJnTWZNXMdPe5NAXPUGl7mH2LHP4uvIo/zV88ScfGjH3xasdyd6YlvGhZJIrLpogzCzOH+sIfU4Kp7eU7gJOr/639zUZVYl9ZI4wtHl8CmqlIC/qCXOX5zXwU+HucuP5ad034+tviZXppvStms5ktbu4eCv2648/Cl3rPO20DlRGV+UVKTxZz1GDhBxVUvC+wNsOH8kWMbzuyGGXIV0b8AfFcqsi44j/z+okVj18TiLtEaEbRDi/DU9O6uK/NLEGEtbpQh62qmK7UWg==",
        "journal": {
          "chaingraph_version": "0.4.0",
          "kernel_digest": "sha256:3db60f420ca07f2d35c4aa2707c39a13b6e04399b65f0924f3e1c71d1b619885",
          "output": {
            "break_even_probability": 0.6,
            "brier_score": null,
            "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Verify all fee schedules with the venue before trading.",
            "entry_price": 0.6,
            "expected_value": null,
            "fee_paid": 0,
            "half_kelly_stake": null,
            "implied_probability": 0.6,
            "kelly_fraction": null,
            "log_score": null,
            "mode": "binary",
            "n_contracts": 100,
            "no_vig_fair_value": 0.6,
            "odds_american": -150,
            "odds_decimal": 1.6667,
            "odds_fractional": "2/3",
            "payout": 1,
            "pnl": 40,
            "side": "yes",
            "venue": "polymarket",
            "won": 1
          }
        }
      }
    }