OpenChainGraph Suite · ART-211 · Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Analyzer

Compute PnL, implied probability, no-vig fair value, expected value, Kelly stake, and odds conversion for binary and scalar contracts. Covers Polymarket, Kalshi, CME Event, and Robinhood. Includes Brier and log-score forecast accuracy metrics.

Polymarket Kalshi CME Event Kelly Criterion Not Financial Advice

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Verify all fee schedules and contract terms with the venue before trading. This tool does not access live prices or execute orders.

🔒 All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.

Contract Mode

Venue

Side

Entry price (USD per contract)

$0.01–$0.99 for $1 payout. E.g. $0.60 = 60% implied probability.

Number of contracts

Payout per winning contract (USD)

Usually $1.00 for binary markets.

No-side ask (optional, for devigging)

The current No ask price. Used to compute no-vig fair value.

Outcome

Bankroll (USD, for Kelly sizing)

Your probability estimate (optional)

0.01–0.99. Used to compute EV, Kelly fraction, and edge.

Forecast probability (for scoring)

Your stated probability before the event resolved. Used for Brier and log-score.

Event outcome (for scoring)

Key Metrics

Full Output

Execution Hash (SHA-256)

Ask your agent

Copy this paragraph into Claude, OpenClaw, or any MCP-aware agent to run this exact tool, with this sample, and verify the artifact.

Run the AINumbers MCP tool `analyze_prediction_market`. Task: Analyze a binary or scalar prediction market position.
Call it with arguments: {"policy_parameters":{"mode":"binary","venue":"polymarket","side":"yes","entry_price":0.6,"n_contracts":100,"payout":1,"won":1}}
Verify before trusting: call `verify_execution_hash` on mcp.ainumbers.co (https://mcp.ainumbers.co/mcp) with the parameter `claimed_hash` set to the returned `execution_hash`, passing the full artifact the run returned (the object containing `policy_parameters` + `output_payload` + `execution_hash`; equivalently `policy_parameters` + `output_payload` with `claimed_hash`), not the bare hash string.
Return the ledger link https://ledger.ainumbers.co/ so a human can re-verify without contacting us.
PII rule: All inputs are processed locally in your browser. No data is transmitted. Do not enter real personal data — use synthetic or anonymised inputs only.
Open the tool with the sample prefilled: https://ainumbers.co/chaingraph/art-211-prediction-market-analyzer.html#p=v1.H4sIAAAAAAAA_wFqAJX_eyJtb2RlIjoiYmluYXJ5IiwidmVudWUiOiJwb2x5bWFya2V0Iiwic2lkZSI6InllcyIsImVudHJ5X3ByaWNlIjowLjYsIm5fY29udHJhY3RzIjoxMDAsInBheW91dCI6MSwid29uIjoxff-fcuNqAAAA