Feature	AFP (Autonomous Futures Protocol)	Polymarket	Kalshi
Built on blockchain	✅ (Autonity L1)	✅ (Polygon)	❌
Decentralized Clearing	✅	⚠️(Single Venue)	❌
Non-Custodial (Users Control Funds)	✅	✅	❌
Open / Permissionless Market Creation	✅	❌ (Curated)	❌ (Company-controlled)
Multi-Venue Trading (Shared Liquidity)	✅	❌	❌
Single-Venue (Siloed) Trading	❌	✅	✅
Supports Continuous Data Products	✅ (Forecast Futures)	❌ (Binary only)	❌ (Binary only)
Binary Yes/No Markets	❌	✅	✅
Cross-Venue Margining / Shared Collateral	✅	❌	❌
Open-Source Trading Venues Possible	✅ (Autex & others)	❌	❌
Collateral Type	ATN, USDC (on-chain margin)	USDC (on-chain)	Fiat / stablecoin (custodial)
Leverage / Margin Trading	✅	❌	❌
Accessible Worldwide	✅	⚠️ (U.S. restricted)	❌ (U.S. only)

This article is a simple, non-comprehensive comparison between two existing prediction markets up against a new category maker (forecast markets).

The Autonomous Futures Protocol (AFP) is a new decentralized platform built on the Autonity blockchain (an EVM-compatible Layer-1). The AFP supports “Forecast Futures” – futures-style contracts whose payoff depends on real-world time‑series data (like CPI or unemployment) rather than a simple binary yes/no event.

For example, current Forecastathon markets include weekly U.S. jobless claims and monthly U.S. CPI forecasts, settling to the actual reported data. AFP’s core architecture decouples trading from clearing: all trades are ultimately settled on a shared on‑chain clearing system, even though anyone can build trading venues that plug into AFP. In practice, AFP defines margin accounts and clearing rules on-chain, and any compatible exchange (called a trading protocol) can match orders.

The first such venue, AutEx, is a non‑custodial order-book exchange connecting to AFP’s clearing contracts (AutEx is expected to be open-sourced soon so others can deploy similar exchanges). This design means a product is “created once, traded anywhere.” This means a Forecast Future created on AFP can be traded on AutEx or any other AFP‑integrated venue, sharing liquidity and collateral. Traders deposit collateral (e.g. USDC or ATN) into on-chain margin accounts and can use unrealized gains from one venue as margin on another (cross-venue cross‑margining). Product creation on AFP is permissionless – any individual can register a new time-series contract as long as it meets data-source requirements.

In summary, AFP is a blockchain‑cleared derivatives framework for continuous outcome markets, with multiple trading venues and shared clearing (no single “house” or silo).

How it is built

AFP runs on Autonity (an EVM-based L1). Its smart contracts manage margin accounts, oracles, liquidation, and settlement. It separates trade execution (the matching of orders on an exchange) from clearing (updating on-chain accounts), removing the monopoly vertical silo by enabling new venues to plug-in.

Product design

AFP’s “Forecast Futures” are continuous futures on time-series (not binary yes/no). Each contract is defined by a dataset (e.g. “US monthly CPI”) and a date. Settlements come from trusted oracles. The payoff can be any function of the data (for example, it could pay more for higher inflation values). This lets markets capture the full range of possible outcomes. The first markets (Forecastathon) rewarded accurate forecasts of real economic numbers, aiming to aggregate predictive models.

Polymarket

Even though they are frequently in the news, if you aren’t familiar with them: Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Polygon blockchain. It allows users to wager on the outcome of future events (yes/no questions) using crypto. In Polymarket, each market asks a binary question (e.g. “Will Candidate X win the election?”). There are two tokens (YES and NO) worth $1 if that outcome happens, $0 otherwise. Polymarket uses USDC (a stablecoin) as collateral: every pair of YES/NO shares is fully collateralized by $1 USDC. In effect, if you buy a YES share for 60¢, someone else is effectively selling a NO share for 40¢, and when the market resolves the $1 is paid out to the winning side.

Kalshi

Kalshi is a centralized, regulated exchange (a CFTC‑licensed Designated Contract Market) for trading yes/no event contracts. Like Polymarket, Kalshi’s products are binary questions about future events, but its structure is very different: it operates as a traditional exchange platform under U.S. regulation.

With that brief introduction, let’s look at some key comparisons.

Underlying Tech

AFP: Built on the Autonity L1 blockchain. Clearing logic and margin accounts on-chain. Open “shared ledger” where multiple trading venues (like AutEx) can plug in

Polymarket: Deployed on Polygon. Uses on-chain smart contracts for each market. Similar to the AFP, it is fully decentralized – users’ funds remain in smart contracts (non-custodial).

Kalshi: Centralized proprietary platform (backend servers and database). Operates under CFTC oversight as a futures exchange. User funds are held in custody by Kalshi.

Type of Contracts

AFP: Forecast Futures on continuous data. Contract outcome is a function of a numeric time-series (e.g. next month’s CPI index). Payoff can vary over a range of values. These are derivatives, similar to futures on data streams.

Polymarket: Binary prediction (yes/no) markets. Shares are priced $0–$1, effectively betting on a probability. Only two outcomes per market.

Kalshi: Binary event contracts. Exactly like Polymarket, each market has YES/NO, paying $1 if correct. No continuous or multi-outcome features.

Market Creation

AFP: Permissionless creation. Any user (a product builder) can define a new time-series product, register it on-chain, and start trading it. There is no central approval needed (no “governance gating”). Once registered and listed on a venue, it becomes live.

Polymarket: Curated by team. Users cannot directly deploy their own markets on-chain. Instead, Polymarket’s staff (with community suggestions) decide which questions to list. This is a semi-centralized process – markets must fit Polymarket’s guidelines.

Kalshi: Company-controlled. Kalshi itself creates all markets (often with input from customers or in response to regulation). As a DCM, Kalshi must ensure each contract meets legal standards (e.g. approved event definitions). There is no user-driven market creation.

Trading & Venues

AFP: Multi-venue. Once a product exists, it can be traded on any AFP-compatible exchange. Trades from all venues clear in the same system, enabling one common price and shared liquidity across venues. For example, a bid on AutEx could match with an order on a future exchange that also uses AFP. Collateral can move freely, and profits anywhere act as margin anywhere.

Polymarket: Single venue. Markets can only be traded on Polymarket itself (and technically on any chain where its contracts are deployed, but in practice Polymarket is its own DApp). There is no way to trade a Polymarket market on another platform. Liquidity and order books are confined to Polymarket’s ecosystem.

Kalshi: Single venue. All trading happens on Kalshi’s exchange. Its contracts cannot be accessed or traded elsewhere. Liquidity is limited to Kalshi’s user base. No cross-platform trading is possible.

Collateral & Clearing

AFP: Uses blockchain-based margin accounts. Traders deposit assets such as USDC or ATN into on-chain accounts. Positions can be leveraged using margin, with rules for liquidation if undercollateralized. Because clearing is on-chain, AFP supports cross-margining across venues.

Polymarket: Uses USDC (on-chain). No leverage – you can only bet the USDC you deposited. Trade settlement and payout are handled by smart contracts atomically (no separate clearinghouse). If your shares win, you get $1 per share back from the contract. There are effectively no borrowing or margin positions.

Kalshi: Uses deposited USD (or stablecoins). Like Polymarket, positions are cash‑collateralized 1:1 (no credit). Kalshi manages an internal clearing ledger under regulatory rules. Traders simply have fiat balances that gain or lose $1 per contract; Kalshi handles payouts from its pool of collateral.

Example Products

AFP: Publicly launched ones include “U.S. CPI for October” or “Weekly Jobless Claims”. These pay off according to actual reported numbers.

Polymarket: Questions like “Will candidate X win?” or “Will Bitcoin exceed $50k by year-end?”. These resolve to true/false.

Kalshi: Events like “Will GDP grow above 2% this quarter?” or “Will Fed raise rates?” Again yes/no questions, but only listed with Kalshi’s approval.

Decentralization vs. Regulation

AFP: Fully decentralized clearing on a public blockchain. Anyone worldwide can (in principle) connect and trade without permission.

Polymarket: Decentralized DApp (no central authority). In practice, Polymarket excludes U.S. users due to law, and uses an on-chain Oracle (UMA) for disputes. But users keep control of funds.

Kalshi: Centralized and regulated. Trades require an account, KYC, and follow U.S. futures regulations. The CFTC oversees Kalshi’s rules. Non-U.S. residents may also trade, but it is a traditional “walled garden” exchange.

Summary

In summary there are just a few similarities, such as how both Polymarket and the AFP use smart contracts on a blockchain, but their contract types are very different and how the contracts are traded are even further apart. Architecturally they are both designed to solve different problems: prediction markets such as Polymarket attempt to solve binary outcomes on discrete events whereas the AFP allows forecasters to trade on arbitrary, reoccurring time series.

The next couple of articles will look at how the AFP fits in the world of other communities and ecosystems.