We started the year primarily focused on the type of long-form, human readable content that a couple SOTA LLMs were able to create with their agentic tools.

Throughout the summer we became increasingly interested in the world of forecast markets, such as the communities of Kaggle, Numerai, Manifold, and Metaculus.

We think there is a bit of alpha that can be gained by sifting through not just the data sets and methods of the data scientists and quants that participate in their polls, contests, and contracts, but that there is a clear intersection with data notation, training, and deploying forecast models for new platforms and venues.

Over the coming months we will dive into a new protocol we think captures that zeitgeist: Autonity.